THE “GREAT GAME” AND UZBEKISTAN
1 August 2005
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The recent controversy surrounding US airbases in Central Asia has once again focused the attention of political analysts on the “Great Game” being played out in Central Asia by Russia, China and the US. And, like over excited sports commentators at a football match, many analysts have been busy trying to outdo each other with their “insights” on what is behind this or that play on the field. While it is tempting to fall for such a colorful image, there is no Great Game to be played in Central Asia and those who choose to view today's challenges in such a light fundamentally misunderstand the dynamics of our region and place personalities over strategic realities.
In reality, the strategic interests of Russia, China and the US in the Central Asian region are remarkably similar. In the first place, none wishes that another gain hegemony over the region's energy and mineral resources. All are united in combating both narco-trafficking and Islamic extremism. And finally, all recognize the need for stability and the strengthening of governmental institutions. Where they differ is on the means to secure these strategic objectives.
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With regard to my country, Uzbekistan, the differences between the US, Russia and China regarding the best way to achieve their common objectives stem, in my view, from the same mistake each has made, or is about to make. Each country developed an excessive reliance on a personal relationship with the local “strong man” in the service of a short-term gain. Russia has over invested in Islam Karimov in the hope of continued stable gas supplies. The US made a similar over investment in the hope of assistance in the war on terror. China now risks making the same mistake in the hope of gaining privileged access to our energy resources. The current difference between the US, on the one hand, and Russia and China, on the other, is that tragic events in Andijan forced the US to admit its mistake in over investing in Islam Karimov. Russia has yet to recognize its loss; China is continuing to make losses.
Our challenge now, the challenge of the citizens of Uzbekistan, together with the governments of Russia, China and the US, is to correct past mistakes and look to the future. A future where our mutual relationships will be based on our shared national interests, not on side deals made with the strong man of the hour. Uzbekistan's national interests, when represented by a legitimate Government, are identical to the common interests of Russia, China and the US. Uzbekistan needs to further develop our rich energy and agricultural resources. Uzbekistan's citizens want to live in a secular state, free of the curses of drugs and drug trafficking. Finally, Uzbekistan's citizens dream of the day when our government institutions work on the basis of law, not personal dictate.
Unfortunately, while thoughtful citizens reject the idea of the Great Game, old thinking in some quarters still prevails. Today, President Karimov is still trying to play the Great Game by making a show of “tossing out the Americans” from the airbase at Karshi. This is, however, a game being played out in the interests of one man. The people of Uzbekistan are tired of playing games. But, we do look forward to the day when Russia, China and the US realize that their common strategic interests in Uzbekistan out weigh the narrow, personal interests of Uzbekistan's President. The sooner these great countries recognize their shared interests, the sooner we all can begin work on establishing real stability and prosperity in Uzbekistan.
By Dr. Sanjar G. Umarov
Chairman of Sunshine Uzbekistan Coalition
